tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 23, 2014 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
and it is not a bargain anymore. >> i still see people arguing that, you know, there could be some way for it to go in either direction. but that is all we've got as we hit noontime on the east coast. let's get to the fast money halftime report. with scott wapner and the gang. >> have a great rest of the day. welcome to the halftime show. the starting lineup. joe terra nova. pete, and mike. we begin with stocks trying to stave off a three day losing streak. some serious damage done to small caps in the nasdaq in recent days and that has some asking if the biggest ipo of all time may be the culprit. did alibaba mark atop for the market? >> maybe. but we don't know for the year. >> do you think? >> anything's possible. but i think it is more
reasonable to say the odds are we didn't make a major top because most of the time we're not making a major top. these are hugely rare. however some of the strategists that are talking about this as a major top, the first is yes, we do tend to have clusters of massive deals around tops. the other thing is this week that started yesterday is the worst week there is historically and the back half of september is rough for investors. >> why so much weakness in small caps. talking about the death cross, the fifty day cross, the hundred day. it's technical but mark watchers point to it. >> diversity between small and large caps is glaring. however it need to be said it's been going on the whole year. >> did alibaba mark the top pete? >> no. that's the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard in my life. >> some say maybe a short-term
top. >> they can say all they want. it's been about big caps all the year. the russell's had its dips. look the way if s&p has fought against it. not just the beginning part of the year but you see the outperformance continues to be. it's been in the big caps. and look, what have we had as a base for the long time now. the big cap techs, the chip, the transports and financials. those are all still working. alibaba is another ipo. it is interesting and fun to kick around but it is just like facebook. the market took off after facebook, even though the ipo was a debacle in the first couple months and ever since it's been off to the race as well. >> another man who thinks the bull market may have ended on friday. mark holbert is live on the phone.
we all want to know what you think out there too. did alibaba mark the top. >> i think it's been near a top for some time. in shameless journalistic fashion i use it to talk about the topic i've written about a number of times recently. and i think what some of the previous people have been talking about which is the divergence is perhaps one of the most glares parts of why the market may be an weak ground and that is that it's relying on fewer and fewer companies to keep going. and that is not a healthy condition. >> having a conversation about whether alibaba marks a top to me as everyone has cited is not where you should be focused. but to your point the and mark's point i do believe the biggest warning signal so far year to date has been place over the action last week. and it is not just alibaba. if you have an options market
pricing incredibly cheap, you have to go out and protect long conditions in a market that's gone straight up all year. that is the right thing to do. and you have a phenomenal point of reference to know whether you are wrong or not. there is a series of events last week that should be interpreted as good news from the fomc to baba to the iphone to scotland no vote and calpers walks away from hedge funds at probably the most important time to have it. i own puts. i think it is the right move on a trading basis right now and i'll stay with that until i'm taken by a new high. >> historically if joe wants to trade for the next month or six week i see reason the buy. we're looking just a couple points below the s&p. did it mark a top for the market two days ago? absolutely not. alibaba is not a top for the market. could we correct? gentlemen. but look at the action.
look at go pro today. they are having a great day at all time high. facebook. trading off its all time high. i think there is more in the market. >> two-thirds of the people that we've asked to vote as we are having this conversation is no they have not marked the top. and people have been trying to call the top for some time looking for whatever they can find. i can suggest okay, earnings are still growing the economy is improving and the fed is still in the game and not going anywhere. and neither is any other central bank that is juicing the system. >> no. and all good points. and first let's me say that so many of the vote viewers are in favor. i would be much more confident about the rally staying power if there was a lot more skepticism. >> if there was 90% who think it doesn't mark the top then you
start to think of euphoria and that fourth stage of the bull market. >> following in mind, one data point for example is the number of bears in the investors intelligence survey. recently 13.3%. you have to back to before the 1987 crash to find another time when there were as few bears as there are right now. i think you have to entertain the possibility that we are at that very condition of euphoria you talk about right there. >> it remains to be seen. and people will continue to debate. marks thanks. >> thanks. >> our next guest is bracing for a small correction. paul, welcome back. >> hi, how are you. >> good thanks. what do you make of it? >> i can't believe you are even discussing it. how do you call a top on just an ipo? we're better an than.
this this is an ipo we've all been to a really good party. this is what you a ef got. what else do you need? the market is tired. we're sitting on highs and all questions the fed. seven or eight days from a payroll number. it's a hangover and when that happens you take it slow for a couple days. get a little bit of a correction but there is no way you can call a top in this environment in my opinion. >> people are saying maybe paul and mark says short term top but there is nothing in place toe mark the top. >> i think. >> what if yelen is right? what if trend tong payrolls mor d if we get a 320 number next week. then we might be talking about possible top in stocks. but if it's 200 or 215.
i this i it continues. >> the yen, the euro and rb obviously the u.s. dollar up 6 1/2% for the quarter. >> we're seeing the deference between monetary policy in the u.s. having gone four and a half years ago versus the rest of the world waking up to this about a year ago. so that dichotomy is proving a the dollar imbalance here and the dollars winning. and you look at draghi, he's got nothing. i think he's got a really big problem bringing in qe and he's screaming for reform from europe but in a democratic environment there i don't see that happening it. leaves him with one thing. that is the currency. so like japan i think europe is going to have to export their way out of the a problem. that means lower currency and the firmer dollar. >> josh brown. >> one thing you keep hearing is a divergence one of the major ones people point out is breadth
or new highs, new low os for percentage of stocks in up trend os above their 200 day. one of the things the people have been talking about the u.s. dollars skewing that negatively because of the how many companies in the s&p, 1500 or 500, however we look at it are in energy or commodity related businesses. the stronger the dollar gets the less people are willing to own those so it makes the internals look worse than they are. however if the dollar gets worse or if the dollar gets too strong, do you see that being a really big drag on corporate profits and hence skewing the markets internals to a point of no return? >> we had an interesting thing from a strategist this morning. the average rate on the euro since inception is 122. so how strong is it dollar? and commodity, everybody's got very concerned with commodities last week. last night it was better than
expected and we see further measures trying to support the property market and already starting to see i think commodities which may be over sold as a result. so in essence the dollar doesn't concern me. and it's preserved in the current monetary policy environment. >> paul we'll talk to you soon. >> all right. >> you raised the question. and you can frame it another way. whether people are being too complacent with what's taking place in the world, whether people are too bullish, or not bullish enough. >> how many times have we heard there is a lot of cash on the side lines. so we are also hearing how many are missed this run to the upside and we're hearing about the bulls pulling back. >> and bearing rolling over. >> and the reason they are rolling over is because they have been wrong for 500 points now in the s&p. and they are wrong for some
times 700 points in the s&p. any case, if you have positions in the market right now you buy protection at low levels like we talked about time and time again. if you are negative on the market, if you are a true bear you got to get out of your positions and then own some puts. but if the market is going higher you protect. >> no one believes -- >> first of all -- >> pete's talking about people coming back in the market. that is a whole other show. because those people are not coming back to begin with. they are gone and left in '09 and never coming back again. but if you are active, pete talks about buying options. that is the right strategy, i think. i think you are protecting yourself and you have to be alert to the warnings signs in the market. off the softest week of the year. fine, whatever it is. you are going to hear corporate earnings that factor into the rising u.s. dollar. can the market be higher?
of course and probably will be. but if you are actively trading right now there are warnings signs that to ignore i don't think would be prudent. >> coming up the u.s. launching air strikes in syria. so what happens now? retired u.s. army colonel and metal of honor recipient jack jack bs joins us next. and tearing open an iphone 6 and checking out all the componentsed in. there are a lot of the. and that and much more straight ahead on the half. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro.
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i want them to know that they do have a safe and reliable system. ♪ u.s. and allies launching strikes overnight. >> it mu it must be clear to an who would plot against america and try to do americans harm that we will not tolerate safe havens for the terrorists who threaten our people. i'm pleased with the actions we are taking. americans are always stronger when we stand united and that sends a powerful message to the world we'll do what's necessary to defend our country. >> retired u.s. army colonel med ol f honor recipient jack jac s
jacobs. >> hard to know what investors in the stock market are a result of what's escalated over in the middle east. but how should we view what's happening in syria? >> i think we need to get ready for a long hall. and we're not going to be able to destroy ice wsis with air sts or cruise missiles. the only way to defeat is force we are not putting troops on the ground. >> not yet. >> i think except for special operations forces, we are not going to have large scale troops on the ground. we are not sending two or three brigades over there which is what is actually needed to get them out of iraq and even more to take care of them in syria. in the end we'll rely on an arab force if it can be put together. so get ready for a long period of time where we are going to be dropping precision guided
munitions on troops. and convoys and ammunition supply points and so forth. and that is going to take a long time. in the end it is going to only degrade and not destroy isis. so the president's idea that we are going to first degrade them and then go ahead and destroy them, i think that is optimistic. it is not going to happen unless there are troops -- arab troops on the ground. >> some arab nations did in fact join us in the strikes last evening. >> helpful but not sufficient. and it's not entirely clear how much support we are going to get in the long run. well we might not get troops on the ground, which is exactly what you need. and i'll tell you something else, the most significant absentee in all this is turkey. you don't hear about turkey's assisting. you even her about qatar is
assisting but not turkey. and turkey really has a lot to contribute. has been obstructionist in the past. with e need them as part of this coalition. until they are i think it is just going to be one air strike after another. and eventually we are liable to run out of targets too. but it is turkey who needs to step up to the plate. >> for investors trying to assess this, how should they view an escalation, which this clearly is, going into syria. and then the risks that come with that. >> well the risks actually to american forces are the de minimis, we fire precision guided munitions from a long distance away from the arly burke, the george h.w. bush, from platforms a long way away. so they are not at risk. in any case we can shut down and actually counterattack surface
to air missiles from our airplanes. so our air forces, allied air forces are not necessarily at risk. so i don't think you are going to see a lot of instability here. we are liable to see some problems. as the carrying out of threats by isis in isolated areas in the west and that is one of the reasons we've launched these attacks. but i think the military risks are de minimis. >> good to talk to you again. conditional jack jacobs. maybe that is why the markets guys have largely been able to turn a blind eye to largely what's taking place there until someone with the military acumen or someone of that stature says there are bigger risks to worry about. >> i think the speeches a the u.n. general assembly this week are what people are waiting to hear before making market decisions about whether they are worried or they feel confident
about this. i would say that there is a little bit more of an anticipation in the air than resolution. >> trader blitz now and turn back to t stocks moving today. four making news. car max is up first. and down big today after slow growth in today's earnings. >> i'm initiativing coverage on car max. this is a vicious gap down. it seems to be finding support at the flattening 200 day moving average. i don't trust it. and if it breaks blow this is in big trouble. they admitted traffic is collapsing. i don't like it. i don't want to own it. >> william blair has downgraded bed bath and beyond to market reform siting market's exposure to ecommerce. >> this call is a little late to me. i think the timing you have to really take into account, bed bath and beyond is due to announce erjs today after the close of the market.
i this i this is more overall call on the market and it could be a negative overhang on the stock because of the housing. but watch the setup. trading 11 times earnings and historically that is a good time to buy. but i wouldn't jump in front of the earnings. >> and dick's sporting goods. >> i don't understand this note whatsoever. blair is cutting it from an outperformed to a market perform, still as a 51 price target. and says the reason that dicks is going to struggle is they are going to lose market share to amazon and alibaba. i just think it is a ridiculous note. >> all right. cfs industries in norway's. they're up big today. >> and when you look at siemens and merck from earlier, large m and a going on right now. just in the this merger category. but it's interesting to see why this makes some sense.
gives exposure in get gas and better prices and cf the international expose are your they want. i think this feeds into the rest of the fertilizer names. not a lot of production there so far. i think potash is one of those that's still too cheap. >> coming up. is e lan musk losing it's touch? is it a big bump in the road or will the sun come out tomorrow? and apple isn't the only one reaping the benefits of the record breaking sales. we are breaking one apart. literally. also black cats, broken mirrors. death crosses one of these is a technical term that could be bad for your portfolio. josh brown reading the tea leaves for paranormativity in the markets after the break.
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welcome back. well, should you fear the reaper? there is a so called death cross happening in small cap stocks. what does that mean? should you care? we talked about this. there are a lot of people who do tear. a lot of people citing this fact as yet more evidence that the market may have topped and we should be wearing. >> most of those are blog ores fighting for clicks. typically when you have the small cap, the russell 2,000 in this dacase. that is a 50 day moving average below the 200 day average. the wives tale sit signals a change in trend.
but it's not particularly relevant. we looked at the data going back to 2001 and it turns out the average return after a russell 2,000 death cross is 11%, 12 months later. the median return is 15%. and in fact only 2 out of 9 times did you lose money if you would have bought on that death cross. more interesting data at another time. but suffice it to say i think this is the kind of things that makes for interesting blog posts, articles. it is cliquable. at the end day no reason to cause you do buy or sell. >> would you agree? >> i own russell puts. i don't know -- >> are you owning because of the death cross? >> no. i'm owning it because last week i was searching for things to have protection against longs and when you look at the russell it's high was back in march. the s&p marched right along
continuing to make record high after record high. the russell has know not. and i want to own puts in the names that have been weak. >> i'm not suggesting it's buyable here or a good valuation or the trend looks healthy or anything like that. what i am suggesting is this death cross phenomenon would not be a reason to hit the buy or sell problem. >> small caps lead up and lead down. that is that different conversation from a death cross conversation. >> and if you go back over the year itself look how many times we've seen a bit of a divergence. yes the s&p reacted when we've seen the small caps break down but then you also see the s&p actually totally outperforming and pulling up small caps eventually. so i tend to say well it looks like the small caps are an opportunity again. i wouldn't be buying them right now. i still stick with the big caps but if they start to turn i
would jump on. apple, iphone 6 is a winner so far. what the reports mean for if component makers? here's a look inside. >> when you look inside it is clear apple that is changed several vendors. that could mean a boost for the stocks with the components inside. display first. there was speculation they would move to sapphire. they stuck with cornings gorilla glass. and when you look inside the new iphone there was a big switch. apple has used samsung chips for earlier versions but now they look to be going with taiwan semi-conductor. a new vendor added to the new smart phone. mxp. that stock already up over 50% this year. they make near field communications chips.
several other chips including those by qual com, syrus logic. >> apple a great name to own long-term but components stick with a micron. >> apple trading within 80 cents of an all time high. in a market that's down. i would be buying more and more apple. i still believe apple at some point goes into the dow. >> off the names i like qual com and the selloff off its high to these levels i think eventually people start to wake up once again and this stock has plenty
of upside. >> josh. >> nxpi. near field communications. this is the -- this is what you want do if you are bullish on the watch, the payments all the things they are working on. this is my name. >> coming up as americans cut back on burgers and fries a marketing guru making money on healthier trends. we're breaking down the next big thing to disrupt your local grocery aisle and possible the portfolio as well. and the comeback for the day is a bullish one. three of the refiners from j.p. morgan. do the traders agree? next s work with equity experts who work with regional experts who work with portfolio management experts
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. welcome back. i wish you could hear the conversation we were just having. >> it's always good. it's heated. >> i wouldn't do a not so fast pete if it were. >> not so fast on both you guys. >> i've been there. i know it. >> guys we are on air. >> we're having a segment called fast break. and we're going to do some of the ridiculous ulous things som you guys say in the break. all i'm saying.
>> that was not ridiculous. i'm legit. >> it's been a tough month for solar city chairman. they are down 12% in the last month. tesla down 2%. solar city a high on september 12th. tesla it the a high on september 4th of 291. and a elan musk has personally lost 101 billion since then. >> is this a momentum shift. >> no. you look year to date tesla up 6%. solar city up 7. in the past year both were up 7%. yeah the stocks have pulled back but this guy is an innovator. one of the guys we're going to be talking about for years. a guy you want to follow. >> anybody else reading anything into that. >> the big fear with solar city
is this is a business model predicated on lending. all the houses or most i should say of the houses getting roof ofs are doing so with the lease as opposed to the purchase of a equipment itself. and the concern is if money gets tight ore rates change it could be putting a crimp in how many of the new leases happen. i'm not saying it's a legitimate fear or not. but it certainly seems to be hitting the stock. >> and crude oil is bouncing off a low today. >> very interesting day. with e have wti, trading higher at this point after bouncing off of a 52 week low, the lowest it's been since may 2013. brent joining me from the chicago merc. and what can we make of this
trading? normally the bombs fly, the attack on isis we'd see a big move to the upside. >> not surprised by the small move we're having right now but ultimately i this this is bearish crude oil. as isis fights for survival it can't take more lanld over or oil facilities over. >> and we can't see production notwithstanding of all of this fighting in the region. jim, what is your take? >> we've been ignoring global head lines for the long time. at the end of the day my opinion the predominate factor is the strength in the dollar. the dollar tried to go lower today and turned it around. i don't think it's going lower any time soon. >> so we still have the dollar as a head wind. notwithstanding the fact we are effectively at war with isis. for more on oil trading and goal look online at features
now.cnbc.com. tune in. >> thank you so much. joe, refiners, trade them. >> i like the refiners. cei, is carl icon favorite. >> j.p. morgan initiating today. >> marathon oil another one. all about the brent ti spread which continues to contract and has surprised many. that was not the expectation for this year. >> pete. >> i think if you are looking at the space right now it is still a no touch. but if you want to look at these names -- >> why no touch? >> yeah. i think we are going to see this fall the way. >> the compression rather than the contraction of it. >> right. and i think at some point we'll see inflection when we start to see oil move. when we do i think then you can look at something like merritam.
they have been shrinking stock. and the dividend you have 110%. >> josh doesn't like them. >> this section is two hard for me. you have to direction right and the input cost and the trade in between. but it can be profitable if you nail it. i don't feel follow closely enough. i'd rather own oil producers. >> there's much better ways to play it because you have to get that spread correct. no one expected it at these levels. >> i disagree with all of you. you don't have to get the spread correct. >> just two. >> not all, two. but if the spread continues to tighten isn't that going push pressure on the refineries. >> you would think so. but dellic up phillips up. cvi unchanged in an environment where the spread continues to contract. this is about real earnings and capital allocation and the
refiners that are beginning to change the way they look at the business model. >> but the concern being if when the quarter comes out if they didn't put up f baufz of that compressed spread, so valero that's really underperformed. could some outperform sure. but think there are better ways to play energy now. >> there are winners and losers. and if there is a shift in the earnings because that is the story right now. if there is a shift this october but until that point the market is proving they work in an environment where they shouldn't be because the spread is coming? >> my point is when the earnings come out, so if that spread were to widen now. that would help the quarter. >> certainly. it would be an additional benefit in a stories that working. >> it is additional pressure. >> that is the last moint point.
>> you would perceive it to be. >> but mike, what else though? >> you didn't just say that. i want to get back into the break. i got to finish that conversation. >> so do i. thanks god. the trend for healthier eating coming up. next prungt products getting even spicer. how you can profit from that point. and it is the first day of fall and we're getting seasonal. we'll are the stocks to fall for coming up next. this is a burrito made with
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top of the hour on power lunch, join us. the dow and nasdaq up this year. but small caps are getting bruced. the russell down 3%. where are the little guys lagging? and could this be a buying opportunity. also a deep dive into commodities. and treasury announcing new moves as you probably heard to make it more difficult for companies to do the so called
tax inversion deals that help them skirt u.s. taxes. a lot of these deals have come from big pharma. what it could mean for some stocks right now. meanwhile scott back to you and the team. >> the days are getting shorter. en thes are dropping and the leaves are changing. fall is here. as this season gets under way we asked traders to reveal favorite stocks for fall. josh brown. >> my favorite stock for fall is dunkin' donuts. it is also my favorite stock for winter spring and summer. a classic pumpkin flavored. pump kin everything. first of all and look the stock has pulled back 4 points from recent highs. i think this is a great entry at this point. and i think really think this is the type of thing people should be looking as a long-term
investment. >> the stock is getting a little move there. >> how about that. >> under armor. one you have back to school. and the other is you have college football every saturday. the nfl. a lot of under armor on the television. it is going to give a boost to sales and the stock has also had a pullback. >> it is a great way to play it. nike is another great way to play it. i'm going with disney. i'll tell you what, football this year has been phenomenal. college football obviously exposure to pro football as well. content is king. they own it right now at espn and that trickles to disney. i think the stock is going higher. >> talking your own book here. >> i am. >> well i'm going to talk my own book too here. >> the personal experience of the fall, number one, preseason
hockey last night. hockey is back. for me what that us does that mean? a lot of time on the road. you are at panera bread all the time. the experience of dining. sit there. you do nfl fantasy in the store. i you can go through that. you don't have to worry about who's suspended like the nfl. they don't suspended. panera has been a winner and bri bringing more and more people into the place like me. >> joe spotted some knews you may have missed coming up. then he helped make vitamin water into a global power house but he's not stopping. he brings us the next big thing in healthy foods after this. e a] automotive innovation starts... right here. with a control pad that can read your handwriting,
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beginning for you and you have carved out a niche in this whole area. >> people called vitamin water a niche back in the day. thanks for having me on. seems like lot of fun on the set. for me i choose it based on do i eat the product or drink the product and believe in the founders. sore whether it was half the fat or the flavor. i believe in vita coco. everything i ate and drank and believed in the founders and i basically got behind it. we built a great team and the rest is history. >> you sort of positioned yourself as a disrupter. we talk about disrupters all the time in areas of technology and elsewhere. how difficult is it to be a
disrupter against well-established brands. i don't care if it is turkey or ketchup. >> when i go to a supermarket shelf and look at the shelves today there are a ton of products that are not good for you. sodas, for example, not making a comeback. snacks, chips, things with high fructose corn syrup. i am looking for products that are better for me. it is millions of americans. what i like this is the greatest country in the world to be a entrepreneur. >> every time i walk into trader joe's or whole foods each trip i see more and more things on the sevls or their own brands. that effects every eye. whole foods has the 360 brands. they are colonizing every aisle. do you worry about that as somebody trying to sell into
these markets? will the other ones follow suit? >> trader joe's philosophy is to have their own brand. whole foods is fantastic partner. whole foods has theirs and there is room for private label. the problem is sodas is high sugar and high calories. you mentioned you drink this product because it has five calories. we say and my partner who is a founder says they are solving the diet dilemma giving you a diet product that is not artificially sweetened. if whole foods wants to create their version that is fine. they really go first for the brand product. >> how do you market these types of products and anything for that matter to millennials these days? it is a different ball game,
right? >> it is a different ball game. i started this thing with vitamin water. the most powerful move that someone shows me once is that. that's it. literally open the product and get them to try it. because everything today in food and beverages when you are in new product whether beef jerky or yogurt or water melon water once you try it you are like this stuff is fantastic. for me it is about getting our products to the right people. one in ten influence the other nine. once they like it they spread the word. social media has the ability. i love it. i'm posting it out there. my friends like it. their friends like it and there is buzz around why it is the next hot thing. >> there was no twitter when you were trying to grow vitamin water so that game has changed for you. social media as you mentioned now. >> one of the guys on my team
said there is a new thing on 2004 called twitter. like a bird? i'm like just focus on real media. that probably cost me a chunk of money. >> i think it went okay. >> don't believe. i think for me today we use social media in different facets. it means younger people are having greater impact on the destination of our brands from marketing standpoint. one of the things we believe in is having brand buys. >> taking selfies with pop chips, that kind of thing. >> i will do that for you. >> please. >> he does have followers. it is great to see you. >> final trades are next. [ male announcer ] some come here
today's worst trade, bad combinations. we give you starbucks latest creation the dark barrel latte. while it doesn't have alcohol in it it supposedly takes a bit like guinness and has chocolaty flavored sauce. >> is that for people with like low blood sugar. >> easy there. dark barrel latte reportedly being tested in ohio and florida and may be widely released in march. you like starbucks stock. >> i'm not sure this is something i will get from starbucks. you said worst trade of the day. >> you want to be innovative but i'm not so sure this will work. >> they got the buzz they wanted. >> i'm not drinking anything called the dark barrel as long as i live. that is a little ominous
sounding. >> final trades. >> oasis petroleum. >> pop chips. >> citi is going up. >> that does it for us. lace them up. "halftime" is over. the second half of the trading day starts now. >> the small caps becoming a sector of concern down more than 1.5%. since first of july small caps down almost 5%. will the russell leave other major indexes lower, as well. they are announcing it is coming in three minutes, a big move from caddie. with us today a man who has cracked into an iphone like a surgeon cuts into a patient. we w